We marketers are suckers for trend decks, forecasts and predictions. But right now the world feels more unpredictable than ever. How do we find our way forward in the face of this uncertainty? Let’s take a moment to pause and reflect.
- We don’t need to tell you that things are especially unpredictable right now.
- But even in stable times, we humans are actually really bad at making predictions. We’re not great at synthesizing lots of data. And we have biases. Lots of them.
- We’re also unrealistically optimistic a lot of the time.
- Economic forecasting is particularly unreliable.
- Marketing trend decks aren’t much better.
- Expertise doesn’t seem to help. Quite the opposite, in fact.
- But despite this, we humans still seek out predictions all the time. We have, deep inside of us, “an insatiable desire to glimpse what the future might hold”.
- We marketers are especially keen on prognostications. We’re curious and optimistic. We like new ideas. We’re enamoured with novelty.
- Here at Modern Craft, we’ve fought against the persistent allure of big predictions before. But they keep coming.
- Right now, a clear picture of what tomorrow holds feels especially enticing. But also especially impossible.
- That doesn’t mean we’re powerless to find a path forward. If you’re embarking on strategic planning for next year, consider opting for scenario planning over traditional methods.
- This four-step process for pushing through ambiguity and making good decisions is also worth a read. Especially the tips for working around our biases.
- It turns out Abe Lincoln probably never said “the best way to predict the future is to create it”, but it’s still great advice. Things may be uncertain right now, but this is also a time of reinvention.